Tuesday, February 1, 2011

More thoughts on the Egyptian Uprising.

It is without a doubt that there is much reason for nervousness in Israel at the present time. If anyone knows the history of the Islamic/Muslim Brotherhood, they also understand that should the regime fall into their hands things wont be particularly swell for anyone, above all Israel. I listened to Netanyahu talk about Israel’s efforts to maintain stability and security, hinting in my opinion a bit of a softening stance on his hard-line foreign policy.

I think that the Egyptian uprising can be turned into an opportunity actually. Obama has openly distanced the US from supporting the Mubarak regime, signaling US support for the prospect of democracy, therefore publicly hinting that we are certain that Mubarak is history, better to be on the winning side I suppose. Just like in Cairo, approximately 18 months ago, Obama tried to gain popularity in the Arab world at the expense of Arab leaders, now too, he is hoping that the new regime will be thankful and will rely on the US for diplomatic and military support. But this is a huge risk if you ask me, imagine if this uprising does not stop at the moderate interim stage and keeps spinning out of control into Islamic extremism, what then?

At the end of the day though, upon glancing in a map of the area, the US has only one state that they can confidently rely on: Israel. Where the regime is stable democratic where America has a huge foot print and is welcomed.

Even with Obama’s dislike of Bibi and Bibi’s hard-line policy toward the Palestinians, lets not forget that Obama lost Turkey, Lebanon and Egypt as allies, therefore can’t really be particularly picky. The most fundamental thing that Obama should realize is that a **nervous** Israel is an Israel that is quite prone to military adventures, anyone who is rational and sane should understand that this is the very last thing that Obama needs right now.

There is no better time than the present for Israel to drive home the point that Israel is a stable and trusted friend of the US. Bibi should not focus on settlements right now, but the repair and re-strengthening Israel’s relationship with the US. Use the crises to heighten security and diplomatic cooperation with Washington.

In closure, I'd like to leave you with this, a glance at what the Egyptian people really want.
Click on text to watch a 54 second clip of the uprising.

Monday, January 31, 2011

The Egypt Unrest

Egypt has been a key partner for the U.S. in the region since the 1970's, and is at present the second highest receiver of U.S. foreign aid with the largest being Israel. Egypt has served as a key arbitrator in the Israel-Palestine peace process. As one of the few Arab interlocutors in the region, the Mubarak regime has been a powerful go between. I think that Israel is concerned or at least should be. Israel and Egypt have been at peace for the past 3 decades. Peace can be in jeopardy should there be a regime change.

From my understanding, the protests are civilian groups rather than dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood, and Islamic opposition movement.

The unrest began with Tunisia, from there it’s became a domino effect, Egypt, the streets of Amman (Jordan), and Sanaa, Algiers are full of protesters. It worries me, destabilized Arab nations and the Middle East should be a concern to ALL Americans.

The stock market in SA dropped, oil prices are rising, everything goes through the Suez Canal.

It’s important to remember that Egypt is a major power middle man in the ME. With a population that is at least two times of any of the other Arab nations. It scares me to think what would happen should Egypt fall.