Tuesday, February 1, 2011

More thoughts on the Egyptian Uprising.

It is without a doubt that there is much reason for nervousness in Israel at the present time. If anyone knows the history of the Islamic/Muslim Brotherhood, they also understand that should the regime fall into their hands things wont be particularly swell for anyone, above all Israel. I listened to Netanyahu talk about Israel’s efforts to maintain stability and security, hinting in my opinion a bit of a softening stance on his hard-line foreign policy.

I think that the Egyptian uprising can be turned into an opportunity actually. Obama has openly distanced the US from supporting the Mubarak regime, signaling US support for the prospect of democracy, therefore publicly hinting that we are certain that Mubarak is history, better to be on the winning side I suppose. Just like in Cairo, approximately 18 months ago, Obama tried to gain popularity in the Arab world at the expense of Arab leaders, now too, he is hoping that the new regime will be thankful and will rely on the US for diplomatic and military support. But this is a huge risk if you ask me, imagine if this uprising does not stop at the moderate interim stage and keeps spinning out of control into Islamic extremism, what then?

At the end of the day though, upon glancing in a map of the area, the US has only one state that they can confidently rely on: Israel. Where the regime is stable democratic where America has a huge foot print and is welcomed.

Even with Obama’s dislike of Bibi and Bibi’s hard-line policy toward the Palestinians, lets not forget that Obama lost Turkey, Lebanon and Egypt as allies, therefore can’t really be particularly picky. The most fundamental thing that Obama should realize is that a **nervous** Israel is an Israel that is quite prone to military adventures, anyone who is rational and sane should understand that this is the very last thing that Obama needs right now.

There is no better time than the present for Israel to drive home the point that Israel is a stable and trusted friend of the US. Bibi should not focus on settlements right now, but the repair and re-strengthening Israel’s relationship with the US. Use the crises to heighten security and diplomatic cooperation with Washington.

In closure, I'd like to leave you with this, a glance at what the Egyptian people really want.
Click on text to watch a 54 second clip of the uprising.

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